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Solana

Status: BUY/HOLD

Solana remains one of the strongest and most significant positions in our portfolio. While we still expect a robust performance in 2025, we believe a mid-term target of $750 is unlikely. Instead, we view a cycle top of around $400 as a more realistic projection. To achieve this bullish target, however, the ongoing correction must conclude soon.

Currently, Solana is trading in a key support zone, which we expect to act as a springboard for the next bullish wave. A bounce from this level in the coming weeks aligns with our expectations for a broader bullish market trend.

Detailed Observations

  1. Wave Structure Analysis
    • The current correction appears to be within the Wave (4) of the broader impulsive structure.
    • Wave (5), the final bullish leg, is projected to target the $400 range, consistent with historical Fibonacci extensions and Solana’s price momentum in prior cycles.
  2. Fibonacci Levels & Support Zone
    • The correction is interacting with key Fibonacci retracement levels:
      • 0.382 at $195.31
      • 0.5 at $178.22
      • 0.618 at $162.62
    • We are currently trading just above the 0.382 retracement level, which coincides with the upward sloping trendline that has acted as dynamic support throughout this rally. This area is critical for maintaining Solana’s bullish structure.
  3. Bullish Bounce Expected
    • Given the confluence of Fibonacci levels and the trendline support, we anticipate a bounce from the current zone.
    • A breach below the $162-$178 range would be concerning, as it could invalidate the bullish structure. However, we consider this scenario unlikely given the strength of the support.

Projection: Cycle Top Around $400

For Solana to reach our $400 cycle top target:

  • Support must hold: The current zone between $162 and $195 is critical. A sustained bounce here would confirm the continuation of the bullish cycle.
  • Momentum must build: Wave (5) will require significant volume and momentum to surpass prior highs.
  • Macro conditions remain supportive: Broader market sentiment and liquidity in the crypto market will play a significant role in propelling Solana to new highs.

Key Points to Monitor

  1. Reaction to Support Levels:
    • A strong bullish reversal near the $178-$195 zone will validate our projection for a move toward $400.
  2. Confirmation of Wave (5):
    • A break above the previous swing high (near $250) would confirm the start of Wave (5) and reinforce the bullish outlook.
  3. Invalidation Level:
    • A decisive close below $162 would signal a deeper correction, potentially delaying or invalidating the $400 target.

Conclusion

We remain confident in Solana’s long-term potential and expect a bullish reversal within the next few weeks. The ongoing correction appears to be nearing completion, supported by strong technical confluences in this zone. Our target of $400 for the cycle top remains intact, provided support holds, and the bullish momentum resumes as anticipated.

This analysis reflects our perspective on Solana’s price action. Let us know if you’d like to delve deeper into specific technical or fundamental aspects!