Status:HOLD
Bitcoin has been in a strong bull market for several months, and we are likely approaching the final stages of this upward trend. The recent market behavior suggests we are entering or will soon enter a correction phase before a potential final surge.
Current Market Situation
Bitcoin recently tested the $100,000 psychological barrier but faced significant resistance, leading to a pullback to around $95,000. This price action, coupled with record liquidations of $1.1 billion on December 5, indicates market overheating.
Short-term Correction Outlook
Several factors suggest an imminent correction:
- Technical indicators show a bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI)10
- The market is experiencing “choppy” trading conditions with multiple resistance factors10
- Derivative-driven selling pressure has increased5
Price Targets and Timeline
The final surge could potentially reach:
- Primary target zone: $130,000-$150,000
- Timeframe: Late August to early September 2025
- Potential intermediate resistance at $110,000
Market Dynamics
The current market structure suggests:
- Institutional involvement remains strong with significant ETF inflows10
- Retail participation is still relatively low, with Google search trends at only 44% of 2021’s peak
- Market makers have significant positions at the $90,000 and $100,000 levels, which could create temporary resistance
Risk Factors
Investors should be aware of:
- Potential for 15-30% corrections before the final surge
- Macroeconomic factors, including upcoming Federal Reserve decisions
- High leverage in the market, as evidenced by recent liquidation events
Conclusion
While we anticipate a correction in the short term, the overall bull market structure remains intact. The correction could provide a final accumulation opportunity before a potential surge to the $130,000-$150,000 range. However, investors should maintain cautious positioning given the increased volatility and leverage in the market.