Bitcoin is currently in the late stages of its bull market, where we are seeing increasing volatility and critical price movements. At this point, we are no longer invested in Bitcoin, having reallocated our capital to altcoins to capture their potentially superior performance in this phase of the cycle.
We project that the bull market could conclude around the $130k region, and we are closely monitoring price action to identify the end of this cycle.
Scenarios for the Current Market
Scenario 1: Larger Wave 4 Correction (Black Path)
- Wave A: The initial corrective phase has already occurred, driving the market lower from its recent high.
- Wave B: A short-term rally could form, potentially reaching key Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618 or 0.786), which align with $102,151 and $104,981 respectively.
- Wave C: A final aggressive downward move could follow, completing Wave 4 and preparing Bitcoin for its final parabolic rise.
Scenario 2: Flat Correction and Immediate Continuation (Blue Path)
- In this scenario, the correction is already complete, and Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory directly. This path assumes a flat correction, bypassing a more extended consolidation.
Key Levels to Watch
- Support zones: $91,328 (0.236 Fibonacci), $82,141 (0.382 Fibonacci), and $75,396 (0.5 Fibonacci) serve as critical levels where buyers might step in.
- Upside retracement: $102,151 and $104,981 are significant Fibonacci retracement targets for Wave B.
- Bearish invalidation: If Bitcoin breaks below $69,204 (0.618 Fibonacci), this could signal a deeper correction before resuming the uptrend.
Overall Trend
Despite the corrective action, we view this phase as a temporary consolidation within a larger uptrend. The ultimate target of $130k remains intact, with Bitcoin potentially setting new all-time highs after the resolution of this correction.