Bitcoin

Bitcoin High-Time-Frame Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, established its bear market low on November 7, 2022, marking the end of a prolonged downward trend. Since then, Bitcoin has transitioned into a bull market, and our analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently in Wave 4 of its Elliott Wave cycle.

Wave 4: A Prolonged Corrective Phase

Wave 4, by nature, tends to be a corrective wave that follows the strong impulse seen in Wave 3. As visible in the chart, Bitcoin’s Wave 4 has been extended, primarily due to the summer lull, a period where market activity typically slows down, resulting in thinner order books and reduced demand. This seasonal dip in liquidity has contributed to the longer-than-usual duration of this corrective phase.

Despite this prolonged correction, Bitcoin has respected key Fibonacci retracement levels throughout this wave. The price has retraced to the 0.618 level at $55,279, a critical support zone during this phase. The minimum requirements for a Wave 4 correction have been met, suggesting that we are nearing the end of this phase.

Impending Impulsive Move: Wave 5

As we approach the end of Wave 4, two possible scenarios could unfold:

• Start of Wave 5: If Bitcoin successfully holds above the key support levels, it could transition into Wave 5, marking the next impulsive upward move. This wave would likely propel Bitcoin to new highs, breaking through resistance levels.
• Deeper Correction: Alternatively, Bitcoin could see a deeper correction if the current support zones fail. This would mean revisiting lower Fibonacci levels, such as the 0.5 ($49,495) or 0.382 ($43,710) levels, before initiating the upward move.

Chart Breakdown

• Bitcoin has retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($55,279), a typical retracement level for Wave 4 corrections.
• Should the price drop further, the 0.5 level ($49,495) would act as a major support before potentially transitioning into Wave 5.
• Once Wave 5 begins, Bitcoin could set new highs, continuing the bullish market structure.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a critical point within its high-time-frame structure, nearing the end of a prolonged Wave 4 correction. The market has respected important Fibonacci retracement levels, and all requirements for the correction have been met. The focus now shifts to whether Bitcoin will begin its next impulsive move (Wave 5) or extend the correction by forming a lower low.

The attached chart illustrates the current wave structure, key Fibonacci retracement zones, and potential paths for Bitcoin’s next movement.