Bitcoin Low-Time-Frame Analysis

The chart illustrates a complex Elliott Wave structure and a potential falling wedge pattern, which is a key focus for the current price action. Let’s break it down:

1. Elliott Wave Structure:
   • The chart shows a completed Wave 1 and a corrective Wave 2. Within Wave 2, we see a potential ABC corrective structure forming.
   • The current price action is in a falling wedge, typically a bullish reversal pattern, which could indicate the completion of Wave C within the corrective phase.
2. Falling Wedge Formation:
   • The price action has tested the upper boundary of the falling wedge (marked by points D and E). The wedge is showing contraction, suggesting the end of this corrective move might be near.
   • A breakout above the wedge’s upper resistance line could signal the start of a new impulsive wave, potentially Wave 3 of Wave 3, in the larger Elliott Wave count.
3. Critical Support and Resistance Levels:
   • The red horizontal lines indicate significant support and resistance zones. The price is currently hovering near the lower end of the support zone around $57,000.
   • Failure to hold this level could result in further downside, potentially testing lower Fibonacci retracement levels or the previous Wave C lows.
4. Fib Levels and Aggressiveness of Wave 2:
   • The price has struggled to maintain above key Fibonacci levels, suggesting that this correction is relatively deep for a Wave 2 within the larger Wave 3.
   • However, the falling wedge formation provides hope for a bullish reversal, despite the aggressive retracement.
5. Outlook:
   • If Bitcoin can break out from the falling wedge to the upside, it would confirm the start of a new impulsive move, possibly targeting higher levels such as the previous highs near $67,000 (projected Wave 3).
   • On the other hand, a breakdown below the wedge could invalidate this bullish scenario and suggest a deeper correction, possibly towards the $52,000 level or lower.

Conclusion:

The market is at a critical juncture. A bullish breakout from the falling wedge would align with the larger Elliott Wave count, indicating a continuation of the uptrend. However, the current inability to hold key Fib levels adds caution, particularly as Wave 2 seems quite aggressive. Monitoring the next few sessions will be crucial, especially for your ETH and SOL positions, which may correlate with Bitcoin’s next move.