Current Market Situation:
Bitcoin has shifted into a bearish scenario, as the bullish outlook has been invalidated. Based on the Elliott Wave count, Bitcoin is currently in Sub-Wave 4 of Wave 3, which is a corrective phase within a larger downward trend. The corrective structure is developing into a three-part wave (A-B-C), with Wave C still in progress.
Wave Breakdown:
- Wave A and Wave B within Wave 4 have already been completed.
- We are now progressing in Wave C, which is expected to finish this corrective phase before Bitcoin resumes its downward trend.
- Wave C has been forming a rising wedge pattern, further reinforcing the bearish case.
Current Position:
- Bitcoin is currently approaching the Fibonacci resistance levels, around the $55,000 – $56,000 zone, which marks the top of Wave C. A rejection from this level would confirm the start of the final leg down within Wave 3.
In the chart above, you can see how Bitcoin is progressing in Sub-Wave 4 of Wave 3, nearing its retracement target at the Fibonacci resistance zone. This area is likely to reject the price, signaling the end of the corrective move and the resumption of the larger downtrend.
Short-Term Outlook:
- Once Sub-Wave 4 concludes, we expect a final push downward in Sub-Wave 5, which will complete Wave 3. This move is expected to lead Bitcoin to a lower low, with potential support coming in around the $52,000-$53,000 range.
Larger Trend:
- Bitcoin’s larger structure suggests a continuation of the downward trend after Wave 4 completes. Following Wave 3, we expect Wave 4 to provide a brief relief rally before the final push down in Wave 5.
The image above outlines the broader Elliott Wave structure, showing that Bitcoin is still in the midst of a larger corrective cycle (WXY). Once the current correction completes, we anticipate further downward movement, with Bitcoin likely targeting lower support levels.
Key Levels to Watch:
- $55,000 – $56,000: This is the Fibonacci resistance where Bitcoin is likely to face rejection in Wave C of Wave 4.
- $50,000 – $51,000: This area represents potential support and a target for the end of Wave 3, once the corrective move concludes.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin’s Sub-Wave 4 is nearing completion, and the bearish outlook remains strong. A rejection from the Fibonacci resistance will confirm the start of the final leg in Wave 3, pushing Bitcoin to a lower low. Traders should closely monitor the interaction with the $55,000-$56,000 zone for further bearish confirmation.
This detailed analysis provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s corrective structure and expectations for both the short-term and long-term trends.