Current Market Condition:
- The falling wedge pattern that was previously tracked has now been officially invalidated, confirming that the bearish scenario is more likely.
- Bitcoin is currently unfolding in a WXY double correction pattern, which is often seen during Wave 4. This structure typically includes two connected corrective phases (W and Y), bridged by an X-Wave.
Wave Count Breakdown:
- We have already completed the A wave low and the B wave high, and now we are working through the final leg: Wave C.
- Wave C should result in a lower low, finishing off this correction phase.
- As seen in the chart, Bitcoin is currently in sub-Wave 4 of Wave 3 within Wave C.
Wave 3 Breakdown:
- In this phase, sub-Wave 4 is now playing out, which represents a short retracement within Wave 3.
- Fibonacci levels are marked on the chart to identify resistance during this corrective move. These levels will help to determine where sub-Wave 4 could find its top before resuming the final Wave 5 to the downside.
- We are expecting Wave 5 of C to bring Bitcoin to a lower low, potentially around $48,000.
Short-Term Expectations:
- Bitcoin is currently developing sub-Wave 4 of the broader Wave 3.
- The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate resistance at $55,000 – $56,000, which could cap this short-term rally before the market resumes its downward trajectory.
Bearish Outlook:
- Following this temporary retracement, Wave 5 of Wave C is expected to bring Bitcoin to a new low, potentially around $48,000.
- This is part of the final leg of the WXY double correction before the market completes its Wave 4 correction and could potentially start Wave 5, which would be a larger upward impulsive move.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: As we are in sub-Wave 4 of Wave 3, the $55,000 – $56,000 zone will act as immediate resistance. This area is derived from Fibonacci retracement levels and will be critical in determining if the retracement in sub-Wave 4 is over.
- Support for Wave 5 of C: The final support target for Wave C is around $48,000, which is expected to mark the completion of this corrective phase.
Conclusion:
- Bitcoin’s structure has shifted toward a bearish WXY correction, where we expect further downside in the short term.
- The current focus is on how sub-Wave 4 plays out within Wave 3. A rejection from the $55,000-$56,000 resistance area could signal the beginning of sub–Wave 5, potentially taking Bitcoin down to $48,000.
- Next Steps: Watch for price action at the key resistance levels. A failure to break above the Fibonacci resistance will likely lead to further declines, completing the corrective structure before a potential bullish recovery.